Bloomberg has an interesting read about EV's and the future of the market

"LJ909" (lj909) 01/21/2020 at 16:01 • Filed to: EV Sales

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!!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! published an article today detailing how Tesla has excited people about EV’s, but customers are only buying from Tesla and no one else. Its a good read. For those of you not wanting to though, here are the cliffs:

An executive at Toyota is predicting a coming EV Armageddon due to slow EV market growth

The cause for this Armageddon is expected to come from the choice of EV models swelling to 121 models in the next half decade. Supply is going to outpace demand. There are just 18 choices today. Automotive research firms see all these models making up just 5% of the market.

The article states that legacy automakers have been holding back diving head first into the EV market until pricing is on par with ICE engines, which they say could happen by ‘24.

EV sales are expected to be at what midsize sedans are selling now, or just under a million units a year.

Tesla accounted for 8 in 10 EV sales in the US last year.

Even with high profile star studded intros of EV’s like the Mustang Mach-E and Taycan, consumers aren’t interested

From the article: “Sales of the Chevrolet Bolt sagged almost 9% last year and the Nissan Leaf slumped 16%, with neither cresting 17,000 units. Last month, Mercedes-Benz !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! the U.S. debut of its first EV by a year after Jaguar and Audi struggled to sell their first electric offerings.”

Also from the article: .”...a study released by Deloitte this month found 27% of U.S. consumers are actively considering a hybrid, while just 8% are looking at pure electrics. Some 59% of Americans still want gasoline-powered cars, the highest of any country Deloitte surveyed globally.”

Consumers are concerned about the lack of charging stations

The article ends with the Toyota exec stating “Someones got to buy these things (EV’s) . There is a market. The question is: How big and when will it mature?”

Overall, market researchers and firms don’t paint a pretty picture for EVs in the coming years.

For Sweden > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 16:26

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What other luxury-but-not-obscene electric cars exist in the $40,000-$80,000 price range?  Just Audi?

LJ909 > For Sweden 01/21/2020 at 16:28

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Are you talking pure EV’s our plug in hybrids? Because I cant think of any unless you go used. 

WRXforScience > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 16:32

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People just have to realize that for nearly all of their charging they’ll just be plugging their cars in at home. Fast charging will become more widespread as EV’s gain in popularity.

For a large portion of the population, EV’s make a ton of sense. 25 years of consistently low gas prices have mitigated interest. If gas was $6/gal you’d see much greater interest in EV’s.

For Sweden > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 16:33

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Pure EVs. The only other USDM models in that range I can immediately think of are Audi and Jaguar (I thought the I-Pace was more expensive).

jimz > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 16:39

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I’ve said more than once that right now it doesn’t look like the market for EVs is much bigger than the Elon Musk Fan Club. 

LJ909 > WRXforScience 01/21/2020 at 16:39

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Yea. One of the problems is that gas is still relatively cheap here in the states compared to the rest of the world.

Another factor though? Consumer stupidity and being uninformed. I’ve heard of people buying EVs and not realizing you have to charge it. Or living places where they can’t charge at home, like apartments. And only charging when they leave. Like my moms neighbor and her Bolt. 

ADabOfOppo; Gone Plaid (Instructables Can Be Confusable) > For Sweden 01/21/2020 at 16:42

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It is. The I-Pace starts at $70k. 

HammerheadFistpunch > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 16:43

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1. Sorry Toyota, whether you are right or wrong you’ve been anti-EV for so long its not possible to take this seriously.

2. Plug in hybrids. PUSH plug in hybrids. People won’t convert to EV until they replace ICE in EVERY way, not just most people most of the time. You can’t say that 95% of time most people are served by range if they can’t hop in their car and easily exceed that range when needed. This is and cost are the biggest EV challenges at the moment. Choice is going to help with saturation but there are bigger problems with pure EV for replacing ICE cars for the majority of people. The biggest being something that range extenders solve.

LJ909 > For Sweden 01/21/2020 at 16:43

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I can’t think of any unless you go used like I mentioned. New? There are none. I’ve never seen an I-Pace listed under $70k. Same thing goes for the e-Tron l, though prices on both (especially the Audi) are slowly coming down from what I’ve seen due to dealers not being able to sell them. I know a couple dealers nearby that have had e-Trons in their inventory for over 200 days. 

LJ909 > jimz 01/21/2020 at 16:44

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It’s true. Unless it’s Tesla it’s not going to sell. Bolts and Leafs should be flying off lots. But they aren’t. 

LJ909 > HammerheadFistpunch 01/21/2020 at 16:47

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True. I do agree that plug ins are a good compromise. But the flip side of that is that many plug ins have EV ranges so low, there’s almost no point in them being a plug in. Especially when you factor in cost that some plug in models have over their ICE and hybrid variants. You can get better overall range with a hybrid. I know I wouldn’t spend money on something I need to charge for 6-8 hours just to get 20 miles of range. 

Snuze: Needs another Swede > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 16:49

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It makes sense to me. I don’t know if I’m representative of all buyers, but electric cars cost too much to interest me. I bought my Cruze LT (mid trim model) brand new in 2012 for about $20k ($23k today adjusted for inflation) . The cars I’m aware of that are comparable are the Leaf ($30k) , Bolt ($36k) , and Tesla Model 3 ($35k) . And those are starting prices. That $7k to $13k buys me a LOT of gasoline, especially considering anything I’d buy is probably at least if not more efficient than my Cruze (which averages 34.5 mpg on my current driving cycle). I drive about 18k miles a year, which at 34.5 MPG is about 520 gallons of gas per year, and at $3/gal, that’s $1500 per year. So it would take me almost 5 years to pay off the extra up front cost, not to mention I’d have to buy a home charger, and my work has no plans to put chargers in.

It just doesn’t make sense to me financially to take on that up front cost, even though I’m probably in the prime demographic for an EV - I commute about 30 miles per day round trip, about 100 miles every Sunday (practice, dinner with the folks), and miscellaneous driving on Saturdays .

Also my inner jalop finds EVs boring. I like engine noises and manual transmissions and stuff.

AestheticsInMotion > For Sweden 01/21/2020 at 16:55

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This.

Maybe if there was genuine competition someone other than Tesla would see sales

facw > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 16:57

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The average commute is ~16 miles each way . It’s true that means most plug ins on the market won’t make it both ways, but a large portion is shorter than that, and many workplaces now have chargers, which will make things easier. And of course it’s still more efficient if you are burning gas half the time, instead of all the time. Still I think range-extended EV is a better model than plug-in hybrid.

ADabOfOppo; Gone Plaid (Instructables Can Be Confusable) > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 16:57

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Not that anyone around these parts cares, but I left the gig at Lexus. I’m now doing the same thing for Jag/Land Rover, Audi, and Porsche. This is relevant.

We recently sold a new I-Pace and dealing with trying to get it charged has completely turned me off owning an EV.

We have a Chargepoint DC fast charge station on site. It is publicly accessible, so we have a few of their NFC cards we need to use to charge our EVs. The car we sold needed roughly 80-90% charged to leave with a full battery pack. I had the fast charger going fine, or so I thought. Checked it a couple hours later and it had stalled at 50%. Tried putting it on the slower Chargepoint box, but that would require too much time to complete and the customer needed more than 50% range. Had to use an internal DC fast charger in our service bays to charge overnight. Guest had to take a different car home and we took their car to them the next day.

They also bought a Chargepoint home system and had it installed by a professional electrician. They fought with it for almost a week before Chargepoint would agree to replace the ‘nozzle’ portion as it was defective and would not charge their Jag. The car charged at other locations fine though.

Charging an EV should no different from charging my phone. And until it gets that easy, mass adoption of EVs will not occur.

I get that I would have to pay for the electrons I borrow. That’s fine. But there should not be so many layers between connecting and charging. As the late philosopher M. Hedberg once said, “I do not need more steps between me and toast.” 

LJ909 > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/21/2020 at 17:00

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You’re pretty much me. One of the main things about EVs that disinterests me is the cost. I just cant justify it. Combine that with how much I drive and its a no go for me. And with Tesla being the only one on the market that’ s an actually sedan with usable room (unlike the compact hatches of the Bolt and Leaf), its the only one that’ s appealing, but its still out of what I’d be willing to pay for an EV. Until someone can get me something that’ s fun to drive, fast, great to look at and gets 500 miles of range with half of that available in about 45 mins-to an hour all for $28 -35k , I don’ t think I’ll ever seriously consider owning one.

HammerheadFistpunch > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 17:03

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there are 2 sides to this coin - one side says “ev’s have plenty of range, no one drives more than 30 miles a day, so range shouldn’t be an issue.” The other side is “plug-in EV range is too little to be usable.”

That’s the beauty of a plug in though isn’t it? you don’t have to choose. even if you only have 20 ev miles a day, thats 20 fuel free miles and when it does switch back to ICE they turn into regular hybrids which are way better than nothing.

Something like the RAV4 PRIME is where it’s at. It’s a rav4 (already a win for people), its AWD, it’s the fastest version and it can go my full commute on EV but not limit me to urban driving like my EV alternative choices would requiring me to have a 2nd ICE powered vehicle to get by.

facw > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 17:04

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Gas prices are eventually going to increase, which will shift the market. Hopefully that happens because we put a price on carbon and stop global warming. Alternatively, at some point, oil supplies will dwindle. I don’t know how close we are to peak carbon, some people say we are there, or very close already, but personally I think that underestimates the ingenuity of people trying to make a buck, and the fact that if crude prices rise, it will make extraction possible where it was previously uneconomical.

Alternatively, if we want to do something about carbon emissions but can’t do cap and trade or a carbon tax, look for environmentally conscious locals to ban or otherwise restrict ICE sales. Might not happen here in the US aside from some large cities, but a lot of the world is more concerned with the environment and less concerned with long-distance commuting than we are.  

CobraJoe > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 17:09

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It’s true. Unless it’s Tesla it’s not going to sell. Bolts and Leafs should be flying off lots. But they aren’t.

History repeating itself:

There was a significant push to make “small efficient vehicles” about 5 0 years ago, and they didn’t sell back then for two reasons:

1: People who bought American cars wanted big cars instead.

2: People who wanted a small car got a much better quality import instead.

Today, Tesla is the equivalant of ‘70s Hondas and Toyotas. People knew the “new brands” were good at doing things the mainstream manufacturers couldn’t do (or weren’t willing to do).

Phyrxes once again has a wagon! > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 17:11

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As a Town home owner with a “single car garage” that could conceivably house and charge and EV (If I junk a bunch of stuff) there is zero chance I am even considering one until it makes financial sense on both sides of the purchase and the other costs to set up charging other than 110 from my garage circuit.

While my commute makes perfect sense for a “low range commuter” as its about 30 miles round trip with the majority being highway speed the incentive to buy one just isn’t there .

Hypothetically speaking if my buying decision was either a Bolt vs a Fit and the difference in gas I’m selecting the Fit every time, and not just because it isn’t a GM product. Battery tech just isn’t there yet to convince me that I won’t be replacing the battery pack in 5 years.  

Ash78, voting early and often > HammerheadFistpunch 01/21/2020 at 17:17

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Absolutely yes to point #2. For most people, a $40k+ decision isn’t taken lightly, so if you can get them an “80/20 electric” (which is how I refer to PHEVs) then at least you spend one ownership cycle getting them accustomed to driving an EV, at least some of the time. And for the rest of their driving, they get a gas car with better-than-average economy. Yes, the running gear is a little more complex.

I don’t think it’s so much a credit to Tesla that they’re dominating the EV market. It’s an all-in, sink-or-swim attitude that they absolutely have to take. They’re doing it well, but it’s all they’ve got. Everyone else can just fall back on ICEs....to their detriment, eventually.

All I know is that if I have zero Tesla showrooms in my city and they still outnumber all other EVs by about 3:1, then the EV market has a problem. I should see a Leaf and a Bolt numerous times a day, but the dealers just aren’t stocking them. You have to really seek them out, which is a little ironic when Tesla are the ones with no retail infrastructure.

3point8isgreat > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/21/2020 at 17:17

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Barely used ones can be pretty solid deals though. Albeit still not quite as cheap as their gas counterparts. I was really close to getting a 2017 Volt this August. Figured it costs more than something like a Cruze, but also drives enough different to warrant it. But then finding out we’d have to rewire the whole house (lol ungrounded house wiring) before we could install a charger kind of killed that idea.  That and the dead pedal was in a weird spot for me.

... And then a few months later I needed a new car anyway, so I spent as much as all that Volt and house work would have cost on a Veloster N . But you know. It’s not like we’re known for entirely logical decision making around here.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 17:29

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This is classic “Early Adopter” market behavior... Geoffrey Moore is likely to “re-boot” his crossing the chasm series just on the Tesla story. My belief over the last 2 years has been “This Product Will Never Cross To Mainstream”... there’s just too many things holding it back. And, there are flashing red light warnings—

1) High concentration of volume in a single brand.
2) Lack of a viable “Avis is #2 and we try harder” substitute: Bolt/IONIQ/Kona
3) Clear cult-following of that brand leader— to the exclusion of rational
4) Only selling to the Early Adopter show-off with 3 Teslas, when nobody else on the block has any Teslas
5) Introduction of “cheaper” alternative product not drawing new buys— ie the new product is taking sales from the earlier more expensive product
6) Only growth coming from opening new geographies, not organic growth.

Tesla (and all EV Makers) sold fewer cars in North America in 2019 than they did in 2018. Think about that a second. This “exponential growth” company actually shrank in its #1 market year over year.

This is very much like Palm Pilot in 2002. Everybody wanted a Palm Pilot and nobody wanted a Casio or HP or Compaq or Toshiba. Everybody wanted a Palm, until they all owned 4 of ‘em and they figured out they were hard to use and lacking basic needs. Then nobody bought Palms anymore. The End.

I firmly believe the BEV market plateaus in a major way, then we tread water until fuel cell vehicles are ready for the mainstream.  Honda and Toyota think this, too...

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch 01/21/2020 at 17:35

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Counter-Point—

Nobody has put more drive motors into cars than Toyota. Period. Toyota doesn’t hate EVs... they just did the math and see that it’s a dead end, as implemented today, for 95% of the market.

Toyota also did the carbon math and understand that clean hybrids have a path to get to under 20 grams of CO2 per mile, where BEVs are going to end up an order of magnitude higher than that once the carbon accounting catches up.

I tend to think Honda and Toyota are playing a 500 year strategy and it’s pretty hard to argue against “hydrogen economy” as the ultimate end game here.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 17:38

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The other beauty of PHEVs is that they don’t have the MASSIVE baked in carbon footprint of the “long range” BEVs.

If “the future” is cars with a ton of batteries and 40 million grams of CO2?  We’re screwed.  Hybrids can mitigate that waste carbon, as they have a clear path to low CO2, then on to truly Zero Carbon hydrogen.  That’s why Toyota is so committed to FCEVs... because it’s a natural path forward.

HammerheadFistpunch > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/21/2020 at 17:40

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yeah, but isn’t that a bit like waiting for the newest tech to come out so you aren’t behind the curve while suffering for not having a working version of the tech?

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch 01/21/2020 at 18:00

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Oh, maybe there’s some of that— and Honda and Toyota both carry some business risk IF Tesla ModY hits the whole CR-V, HR-V, RAV-4 category hard. Clearly Honda and Toyota are betting against Tesla making inroads there. (Which is the opposite side of The Tesla Guys saying “Hey we killed the BMW 3-series!”... when in fact what killed the 3-series was the X1 and X3 and a fleet of hunchbacked CUVs...)

OTOH, my view (at least here in SoCal) is that the grid’s not getting cleaner nearly as fast as people are being led to believe, especially at night when most people charge. Down in LA, they’ve lost the San Onofre nuclear plant and don’t have much reliable night supply of electricity, so have doubled-down on their coal plant in Delta, UT (Intermountain). It will eventually be converted natural gas... but Intermountain’s been “5 years from closing for the last 20 years”. The net is that there will be a lot of pain on the grid in coming years... with a much cleaner grid in 40 years. So, I always wonder why “I should buy an electric car today, with maybe a 10 year lifespan, when the grid to charge it won’t really clean up much for 40 years...” or until we reconcile what to do about the 120 GW of nuclear due to close in the next 20 years. Most places are back-filling that night demand with purchased coal and new gas plants today.

Since you are in Utah, this impacts you more directly, since CA has quietly but steadily ramped up their imported energy (mostly purchased coal plant power from Pacificorp, which has coal power plants all over Utah) to well over 30% of supply sometimes. CA doesn’t like to talk about it (We have NO more coal plants!!!..... er, no more coal plants in California ” ) but they continue to use a lot of coal, which is clearly off message on the EV front.

Meanwhile, Toyota sees a near term path to get most of their fleet under 200 grams per mile of CO2 via hybrids as this all gets figured out. I don’t see it as that wacky— especially since they come off some GREAT sales years in Europe, where they should be under siege from BEVs... .doesn’t seem to be hurting them much.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/21/2020 at 18:40

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Those prices you’re citing are completely ignoring the rebates that exist. I just leased a fully loaded Bolt this past weekend, after all the rebates (which federally are very low at this point) and manufacturer/dealer discounts you can drive away in one of these things for around $25k. That’s not that much more than the Cruze LT you mentioned...for a car that has a lot more gadgetry, and is significantly cheaper to run.

Yes the federal/state incentives will dry up - and current pricing on the Bolt suggests that the manufacturer, at least temporarily (let’s see what happens long term) is willing to make up that difference at this point.

I’m not sure why, but many dealers I’ve noticed are really bad at advertising closer to actual selling price for EVs. They just throw MSRP on there and think consumers can do the math - but the math is understandably complicated, especially as the numbers keep moving around. 

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > 3point8isgreat 01/21/2020 at 18:42

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Wait you’d have to rewire the house for a Volt? Will you be draining the battery daily with your commute? H ow slow does it charge? My last BEV was a Spark EV and I only plugged it in to a regular outlet at night and had it fully topped off come morning (albeit my commute is only ~25 miles round trip). Just got a Bolt and planning to do the same...on regular power you should be able to get ~40 miles if you let it charge for 8-10 hours each night.

LJ909 > ADabOfOppo; Gone Plaid (Instructables Can Be Confusable) 01/21/2020 at 18:43

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What you described is a big problem, along with a few others, that needs to be overcome. It shouldn’t be that difficult and that much of a hassle to charge your vehicle. While there are a growing number of chargers, which is all fine and good, there are still the hurtles of both a supporting electrical grid and a universal charger for everyone. But its about money, so everyone wants a piece of the pie which means different charging systems. Its dumb. We have USB for devices. We need something similar for cars. It shouldn’t be that hard to have a universal charger for vehicles.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > facw 01/21/2020 at 18:46

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that happens because we put a price on carbon and stop global warming.

THIS. THIS. THIS. It infuriates me to no end that people keep shouting about free markets in this country, but then completely ignore that one of the biggest components of gasoline consumption goes entirely unaccounted for in what we pay for the product .

I’m so sick of talking heads like those from Subaru and Toyota complain that the EV market is BS and take their sweet time adjusting to it, when the status quo they’re embracing is causing substantial damage to our environment. This applies especially to Subaru who is trying to hang on to this granola vibe they’ve created for themselves in the US.

HammerheadFistpunch > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/21/2020 at 18:47

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“so have doubled-down on their coal plant in Delta, UT (Intermountain)“ yeah thanks for that btw. I freaking hate that plant.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > Phyrxes once again has a wagon! 01/21/2020 at 18:49

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If you’re also hoping for range you’re never getting a BEV that you can just plug in to your 110 outlet to fully charge overnight with , sorry. But with your 30 mile commute if you’re OK with that amount of range being added to your battery every night with a 110 outlet, let me tell you that is already the case. I’m on my second BEV and do exactly this.

Also EVs come with a 100k mile, 8 year battery warranty. Additionally, history hasn’t borne out this fear of yours that a significant number of them have batteries crapping out a few years down the road.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > HammerheadFistpunch 01/21/2020 at 18:52

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#1 - Honestly it’s getting pretty old and infuriating. I hope it comes and bites them in the back as a lesson for the future .

LJ909 > CobraJoe 01/21/2020 at 19:02

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The difference is though that, unlike Toyota and Honda of the 70's, Tesla seems to be focusing on the higher end of the market, catering to people who care little for fuel savings and more about the hottest new tech or being seen. And because of that, its to the determent of the EV market as a whole. Until they stop catering to those well off buyers (many of whom benefited needlessly from the EV tax credits), there aren’ t going to be more cheaper, mass market EV entries . We will continue to get $50,$60,$70k+ entries into the market like Rivian, Bollinger,Polestar etc that cater to those luxury buyers.

LJ909 > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/21/2020 at 19:10

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You said the truth that no one is willing to face for whatever reason. EV’s are the IT topic right now and its pushed heavily, but all the warning signs are there. And to point them out is to either get called a person not liking EV’s, or being against Tesla. The demand just isn’ t there. We are years past the point of where the tech should have trickled down for EVs to have gotten cheaper. The coming years should be interesting with new entries to market, but so far, its only been entries that the well off can afford. Which might be where EV’s end up: toys for the rich. While the masses all drive hybrids, plug ins and fuel cells. Which could explain your last point of why Toyota and Honda are sitting back watching everyone over react with EV’s in development to a market that isn’ t interested .

Teutonic Tonic > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/21/2020 at 21:01

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Reportedly Tesla sold more cars last year than their previous two years combined, which is dramatic growth.   Will be interesting to see what happens when VAG and others present interesting alternatives.  So far the main alternatives look like $40k economy cars (Leaf, Bolt, etc...).   Porsche, Ford and VW may change that.  

zipfuel > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/21/2020 at 21:21

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Your Palm pilot analogy has merit but you ended the story before the part where the technology reached a tipping point and boom suddenly everyone on the planet has a smart phone....

Batteries are on a sharp curve towards getting very cheap, couple more iterations and they’ll murder IC vehicles on straight up economics and reliability (timing belts lol) but we aren’t quite over that hump yet

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 21:22

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There’s an interesting data point playing out right now... In the US, it appears obvious (we’ll know in two weeks) that Tesla sold fewer cars in each model category in Q4 2019 than they did in Q4 2018. When you point this out to the Tesla crowd they’re like “Oh, that’s intentional. We intended to ship fewer cars in the US because we are SUPPLY limited— so we INTENTIONALLY sent more cars to Europe to meet our high demand here and had less for the US.” Sounds plausible, right?

Well, leaving aside the obvious issue that Musk claimed years ago that by 2018 his two factories (NV and Fremont CA) would be shipping over 500,000 cars a year and they hardly did 300,000 in 2019... well, there’s another question:

If, as you say, demand for EVs is “growing exponentially” then why didn’t some hundred or two-hundred thousand US customers who SO desired to buy an EV for $65,000 from Tesla race down to their Kona, IONIQ, LEAF or BOLT dealer to buy a “not quite as nice, but a lot less expensive, EV with $7500 to $12000 stapled to the frunk lid”????

The lack of “supply” for Tesla SHOULD have sent Bolt and the others skyrocketing in Q4... But, instead, EVERYBODY IS SHOWING SALES DECLINES in the biggest EV markets. If there is so much demand, some buyers should have migrated over to brand substitutes— Chevy, Hyundai, Nissan. Nobody did. Sales are all down.... WHY?

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > zipfuel 01/21/2020 at 21:32

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No, you missed the point. Palm was a dead end. Their “whole new way to think about computing” flamed out, because it was too slow, hard to use and didn’t integrated into everyday life. It was only early adopters that bought.

The “slow stodgy” companies that had brand, distribution and connectivity? They ultimately won out— because the phone industry owned the customer, had distribution, and brand. They successfully brought the smartphone to the masses, because, HEY!, everybody needs a phone. They also crushed point-and-shoot cameras, film and everything else in their way. That’s Toyota in this analogy.

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Sorry, but I worked in that space for 15 years, so I giggle out loud every time some Cult guy talks about how “much faster batteries are getting better”. Compared to Moore’s Law? Nah, the metric is only 11% per year. It’s slightly better, maybe, but there’s a reason my 10 year old phone would last a week on a charge and these days you can’t get through a day.

If your thesis were at all true (it’s not) your phone would last a month on a charge by now.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Teutonic Tonic 01/21/2020 at 21:41

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I don’t think it’s quite that good... They never got anywhere close to the 500K cars that Musk said they’d be able to build in 2017 with Fremont factory.

I don’t quite understand why they wouldn’t ship all they could sell in the US, if that were the case, but the sales trackers all show all Tesla models selling fewer cars to the US in Q4- 2019 than 2018.

they will sell a bunch of ModY no doubt, but my thesis is that it’s all Early Adopters. i was in the Bay Area yesterday to pick up a project car— you see Tesla EVERYWHERE. I guess if I lived there I’d think Tesla was the best selling car in the world but the SF area is clearly the outlier. I see ‘em a lot in SB where it’s the latest fashion accessory, but in LA? Just another car.

Tesla needs to grow the tent somehow, because I think they are stalled in established markets.

LJ909 > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/21/2020 at 21:50

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One of the main reasons why that no one mentions (and this is my opinion) is that Tesla has brand cache close to if not on par with BMW. They are a fashion piece. That’ s why everyone is going to them. People thought that EV buyers would be rational beings who would approach these vehicles like they would approach a piece of tech. Instead they went in and have helped create a monster. A Frankenstein of a company that has the badge snobbery/badge whore following of BMW, but with the cult like personality of Apple who thinks they are the worlds savior.

That all adds to nearly all Tesla models being nearly as common as an Accord or Camry in some areas. And why no one else is buying anything else. Smart buyers would go get a Kona, Leaf, Bolt etc with huge discounts on top of being cheaper.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch 01/21/2020 at 21:53

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Intermountain is my hot button— only because LA lies through their teeth about their ownership-and-operation of that plant. It even has a dedicated HV line to take that coal power from Delta to Adelanto, CA near Victorville for distribution across the LA Basin. So, they like to say “Oh, we have no coal power in CA...” But the reality is they buy an increasing amount of coal— and that negatively impacts Utah.

They will eventually convert the thing to natural gas, but I bet it’s still there in one form or another 30 years from now. LADWP played similar games for decades about that ugly monster Navajo Generating Station— when forced to “divest” their ownership, they duly flipped it into a “shell company” but kept running the plant for LADWP for years more.

We’ll have made progress when we finally get all the coal plants in Utah shut down or retired. I’m hoping the Jim Bridger plant up in Rock Springs goes soon, too. It is one ugly ass monster coal plant. Really bad.

I just harp on the CA thing a lot, because they are so sanctimonious about it— claiming they’re much cleaner than they actually are. And, literally they will play games like the “shell company scam” to hit political metrics that make no actual difference...

My favorite example of that is the “100% Zero Carbon” Ivanpah solar plant with the thousands of mirrors pointing at three pyramids in the sky... Looks very high-tech, but it’s a boiling water thermal plant.  Billed as “100% Solar, 100% green” when California pitched it and got federal funds... Zero Carbon!    Only the math never worked and it never got the water hot enough to reach full efficiency.  So the scuzbuckets installed natural gas fired boilers into the steam loops to heat the water faster...  31% of the energy to make electricity now comes from natural gas.  Of course, THAT didn’t comport with the “100% Zero Carbon” power political promises, so they did what they always do... MOVE THE GOAL POSTS!  They no longer count the natural gas as part of the thermal input... instead it’s booked as “water pre-heat” and continue to report their “100% Zero Carbon” figure as if the water naturally entered their heating loop pre-heated to 210 degrees.  It’s so disingenuous.  That’s why I trust very little of the reporting in this area-- everybody tries to make it seem better than it is.

Phyrxes once again has a wagon! > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 01/21/2020 at 21:53

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I don’t expect range but I tend to keep a commuter until the costs to keep it on the road out pace how much a “new” commuter would be. I see enough of my students who drove their parent’ s “old” car that wa s a hybrid get a new to them car when something in the battery system failed and it wasn’t worth replacing repairing (to the parents). Not surprisingly many of these are some version of a Prius that was a commuter for the parents and many of them would be in the 5 to 10 year old range.

Aside from having to clear my garage (or running an extension cord out of the garage to the parking spot I would guess) an EV with the range of a L eaf would fill almost all the driving I do except for the road trips. The downside is I have no means to charge at school unless I run an extension cord out to the faculty parking lot and I’m sure facilities would love that.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 22:01

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This is a pretty good explanation of “Early Adopter Syndrome”... people buying the brand, not the product. And, not solving an actual problem.

Whenever I run into somebody on the boards talking about their Model S and Model 3 (and they all want to buy a Y too) and they say “I don’t even care about the carbon. It doesn’t matter to me. I just like Teslas”...

I just then think to myself “Ahh, that’s exactly what an Early Adopter Guy would say!”

When people begin to quantify how much they are actually saving, including purchase price, you’ll know Early Majority types are buying it because it actually saves them time and money and hassle.

you don’t run into them much yet because, face it, only an idiot would buy a $60K car you can’t take on a long trip when they could buy a $27K car that’s the world standard for reliability.

You do see Tesla cars EVERYWHERE in the Bay Area-- basically driven by the same people buying lots of Palm Pilots in 1999.  I rest my case.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > 3point8isgreat 01/21/2020 at 22:07

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on the 12amp mode on a 110v it fully charges in @8 hours. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 01/21/2020 at 22:07

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on the 12amp mode on a 110v it fully charges in @8 hours.

CobraJoe > LJ909 01/21/2020 at 23:05

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It’s worth noting that the old imports weren’t exactly cheap cars back in the 70s. A ‘75 Civic started over $3089, a Gremlin started at $2798, Dodge Dart started at $3500, a V8 Camaro cost $3698.

In other words, an American made compact car could be had for cheaper than a tiny, underpowered Civic, and a honest sedan or a V8 pony car could be had for a little bit more. Import p eople paid a lot for what they got.

But you do make a fair point, the price gap between a popular EV and an ICE powered version of the sa me vehicle is pretty high. Some of that could be considered as “savings” from not buying gas or gains from tax credits , but EVs aren’t economy vehicles yet. The point still remains: people are looking to new brands to deliver the cars that the mainstream manufacturers aren’t overly enthusiast about delivering yet.

thatsmr > facw 01/21/2020 at 23:12

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I am grateful every day that my 8 mile commute each way takes 11-15 minutes depending on lights, traffic. If the average commute is 16 miles, how does that figure in bigger, traffic jam cities? and assuming one wants to twaddle infotainment (!) or full climate control, does a plug-in really out perform a mild hybrid?

zipfuel > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/21/2020 at 23:55

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Sorry if I missed the Palm pilot point, I wasn’t into that scene so I always saw the Palm pilot as the proto smart phone; what the future will look like just not quite there yet.

Don’t mistake me for one of Elon’s groupies. For any mature industry 11% year over year improvement is still a bonkers rate of change. Especially cars that have such long development times. At that rate it doubles in ~7yrs and they’re predicting IC price parity by 2024, sounds about right. That’s not far away and none of these companies want to get caught with their pants down when that happens so they’re bringing limited stuff to market now.

Also I’m willing to bet actual money ($50) nobody will ever mass produce a hydrogen fuel cell car (although I’d have to wait forever for collect on that I guess) but I'll save that rant for another day

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > zipfuel 01/22/2020 at 00:29

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There is a revisionist theory that says the Palm Pilot was the “prototype” for a smartphone, but it was in retrospect just sort of a side thrust. Different OS, not integrated into daily routines, no browser-then-a-shitty-browser. EVERYTHING was different and a few people put up with it.

The flaw in the revisionist theory is that a full SEVEN years elapsed between the time Palm hit the wall in 2000... and the iPhone came on the scene in 2007. An eternity. Palm tried several gambits with Handspring, but it just wasn’t well integrated into the way people worked.

My belief is that Tesla sorta is in “that spot”. Charging is still a pain in the ass. You have to plan your trip and your life around the charge port in your garage. All spontaneity goes out of trip planning. It’s just hard to get around the long charge times, even going 40-80% which everybody seems to do for some reason. It’s just a huge amount of compromises to get what’s only dubious benefit.

Ultimately, “the big guys” gobbled up the smartphone space much like they gobbled up point-and-shoot cameras and personal organizers. Nobody worries about “synching contacts” and “web transcoded browsers”.

So, my theory is that the Early Adopters saturate the markets, and we tread water for a few years until something comes along that doesn’t require everybody to re-wire the houses and wait for an hour to charge.

The progress on hydrogen electrolysis is coming along MUCH faster than battery development... and we’re seeing the glimmers of a 40% direct solar+water2Hydrogen panel technology. The beauty of H2 remains the ability to store energy, particularly solar energy, while burning perfectly clean. It will be a freebie from the next gen nuclear reactors.

I firmly believe that in 20 years we’ll be laughing about that “Dude from South Africa shilling 2000 pound battery packs in 2020" as we whiz around in superclean FCEVs, trucks and buses.

It’ll be fun to watch it all play out, but I think the US market is about to plateau on electric vehicles for awhile. Model Y will sell in large volumes for a couple of years to the same guys that bought Model S and 3. Overall market size won’t exceed 4% of a 70 million unit worldwide market.

YMMV

Teutonic Tonic > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 01/22/2020 at 06:04

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I think a lot of their recent growth has been overseas. I do see a lot of them here in Indianapolis, which surprises me. I’m designing an Orthopedic Hospital and like a dozen of the surgeons drive Tesla’s.   The head doc drives a Wrangler with a hellcat engine dropped in and they give him nonstop shit . They have replaced Porsche as the preferred status symbol for docs. When the Taycan comes out it will probably be Porsche again.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 01/22/2020 at 06:18

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Thats a good point and something I had not considered, though as you mentioned I assume that at this point the rebates had dried up. I saw your Bolt post, and $25k sounds like a darn good deal.  That price would make something like a Bolt much more attractive to me. 

Snuze: Needs another Swede > 3point8isgreat 01/22/2020 at 06:21

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Meh, grounding is overrated! Trust me, I was an electrician!

Veloster N sounds like a ton of fun, how are you liking it? Also, is your screen name a reference to the GM 3800 V6?

3point8isgreat > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 01/22/2020 at 09:18

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Our house isn’t grounded.  So to even use the included 110V charger would require getting the house rewired with grounding.  Even the 3 prong outlets in our garage are a lie.  We were allowed to borrow the Volt for a weekend and tried every outlet in the garage, but every single one gave a “ground” issue light on the charger.  

3point8isgreat > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/22/2020 at 09:22

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It’s not overrated when the charger goes “LOL NO” when you plug it in without grounding.

I’m loving the Veloster so far. Only things I wish it had are RWD and another rear door. But other than that it’s comfy, gets decent fuel economy on my 75 mile round trip commute, and then turns into a playful puppy with the push of a button.  It even got my wife excited to learn manual!

The 3.8 is in reference to my V6 Slowstang. But close! For such a slow car it has definitely given a lot of smiles over the years.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > 3point8isgreat 01/22/2020 at 09:54

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I was being facetious about the grounding thing . That’s a real pain and you’re right, no easy way to solve it. Not only do you need to rewire anywhere you wanted a grounded outlet (and you should want them everywhere), but is your panel bonded and grounded? You may need a whole new service. I didn’t have the grounding issue issue in my house, but my panel was out of space and I had some other issues that needed addressing. I put in a new main panel and installed a 125 amp sub panel in the garage. Now it will be super easy for me to add an EV charger in the future up to about 90 amps @ 240V AC. Selling feature!

Regarding the Veloster, that sounds great, and pretty much inline with what everyone says about them. If I was buying a brand new car today, I’d definitely give it some consideration. I test drove one with the DCT back when they first came out, before I bought my Cruze, and I remember liking it but not loving it, and I think the N version would really check all the boxes for me.

I don’t know much about Ford’s 3.8, but my first car that was my own was a Pontiac Grand Prix with GM’s 3.8.

3point8isgreat > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/22/2020 at 10:12

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We’ve settled for just putting in GFCI outlets where we plug in expensive stuff. This was the suggestion after we had an electrician come out to look at grounding . You know it’s bad when the person who’d do the work is telling you it’d cost too much to be worth it. Not sure what our panel does or doesn’t have available.

My understanding of the Ford 3.8 is that they looked at the Buick 3.8, changed a few tiny details, and then built it.  The two slowly developed further apart over the years.  But basically until 1999 the Ford 3.8 was just a lower power version of the GM 3.8.  Still seems like a similarly indestructible engine though.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > LJ909 01/22/2020 at 10:45

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Here’s why I think Bloomberg is wrong:

First reference in the article is about Toyota. Toyota has a lot of skin in the automotive game. If they jump on board the figurative EV train too early, they will be spending a lot more money than their competitors. If they join the game too late, they’ll be losing market share. Timing is critical. Also, so far Toyota has been banking on fuel cells taking off, but they haven’t (and won’t, at least for consumer vehicles). They’ve bet on the wrong horse, and aren’t willing to admit it. They’ve been actively fighting EVs with th ei r “self charging hybrid” ads (i.e.: regular hybrids - not even plug-ins). So far their plug-in offerings have been pretty abysmal (first plug-in Prius had a range of something like 9 miles. Second generation one had a better range, but was still difficult to keep in EV only mode. Press the gas too hard, and the gas engine comes on, unlike the Volt). Their first serious one is the RAV4 plug-in, and that is being offered as a 2021 model. It seems to be Toyota’s first serious offering. Also, considering how many people are trading in Priuses to buy Model 3s, I think Toyota is getting nervous.

“Auto retailers caution growth will be slow, citing still-high battery costs and range constraints. And far more U.S. shoppers are willing to kick the tires on a hybrid than cars that only plug in.”

Of course dealerships are going to say that growth will be slow. It’s in their best interest to keep it slow, as they make the majority of their money from parts and service, not sales. EVs will typically have much lower maintenance. Sell more EVs than traditional vehicles? You’ll be making less. Part of the reason U.S. shoppers aren’t willing to switch to EVs is the huge amounts of misinformation about EVs. There’s some serious levels of ignorance out there about them.

“The models on the market will swell almost sevenfold to 121 models in the next half decade, from 18 now, according to LMC Automotive.”

I’d love to see the listing of these 121 models. I think it’s bogus. That number is way too big. There’s companies like GM that have promised that they would have X number of EVs by 2020, but that hasn’t materialized. They haven’t been keeping their promises. Also, is that 121 models actual EVs or “electrified” vehicles? The traditional manufacturers have been dragging their feet in actually bringing out pure EVs. They keep using the term “electrified” to describe traditional hybrids, which is a joke.

“Supply is going to get ahead of true customer demand.”

Right now, it’s the exact opposite. That’s why there’s waiting lists for vehicles like the Kona EV and the Niro EV. There are a few exceptions to this - mostly the vehicles that people _don’t want_. Like the Nissan Leaf. Nissan has shown nothing but incompetence for proper thermal management. The “second generation” Leaf is really the same as the first generation, just reheated and served up with a bigger chunk of parsley on the plate. They did absolutely nothing to address the engineering shortfalls of the first generation Leaf - namely thermal management of the battery pack. And this is going to cost them long term. There’s also a number of other compliance EVs out there - the Fiat 500e (poor range), Ford Focus EV (poor range), Honda Clarity (poor range), Smart ED (poor range, if you can even buy one now). There’s a few cars that straddle the region between “terrible” and “pretty good” - e.g.: the second generation e-Golf, Hyundai Ioniq EV (range is better, but still not great), the new Mini EV (decent range, not bad value for the price, after incentives).

What I don’t get the hate for the Chevy Bolt. It seems like a great little car and the best bang for the buck for something with a decent range. GM has so far failed to address the two biggest complaints though - the narrow seats, and the slow charging time (50 kW, compared to 200+ kW for the Model 3). GM has also failed to lower the MSRP, but rather let the dealerships do that. But because of this, people look at the price of the Bolt ($35k) and the Model 3 ($37k), and it’s a no brainer to go with the Model 3. Most people (myself included!) aren’t really aware of how much money GM is willing to throw on the hood to make them move. Combine that with a form factor that most people are shying away from (a hatchback), GM’s history of anti-EV behaviour, the potential terrible dealership experience, lack of a dedicated charging network (no Supercharger for you!), and it makes the Model 3 look like the much better option. Which is really kind of a shame. I think the Bolt gets a lot of undeserved hate.

“That would leave the 114 competing offerings from other automakers averaging annual sales of 6,145 per model, or about 118 units a week.”

Something to consider - what are those other models? So far Audi hasn’t really been pushing sales of the e-Tron. Same with the Jaguar i-Pace. Both are pretty expensive for what you get, and both don’t have the same range claims as what Tesla offers. It’s great that there’s consumer choice, but there’s two things riding against them:

1. Consumers aren’t aware of what other models are out there

2. What is out there can’t compete on price or range compared to what Tesla is offering.

All things considered, Tesla is producing the most compelling models. They’ve got the range, the dedicate d fast charging network (that isn’t a hassle to use), the no-pressure sales (i.e.: no negative dealership experiences).

“If Honda, Toyota, GM or Ford made that vehicle, we probably wouldn’t sell them in those numbers.”

He’s right on two counts:

1. Tesla fanboys (and girls) are a rabid bunch. Like think Apple fanatics on sterioids. (This works both ways, though)

2. If Honda, Toyota, GM, or Ford made a vehicle like that, it’d likely have some sort of shortfall compared to what Tesla is offering. Either shorter range, higher price, slower charging time, no frunk, etc. Part of the reason they don’t get it is because they aren’t listening. If GM really wanted to sell the 2020 Bolt, they would have fixed the seats and the slow charging time. But GM isn’t interested in selling 100,000 Botls a year. That’s not where they are making money. They are making money by offering the Bolt and cashing in on those sweet ZEV credits.

“People are not generally willing to pay more to be inconvenienced,” St. Cyr said.

Right. Like the inconvenience of having to stop at gas stations? Or the inconvenience of more routine maintenance? Or the inconvenience of having a 201 mile range while your competitor’s car has a 240+ mile range?

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/22/2020 at 11:27

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The federal rebate is indeed low now but Chevy is making up for it, at least temporarily. Will have to wait and see what happens long term. In the meanwhile there are other options that the full rebate is applicable – for example I believe Hyundai has a lease deal on the Ioniq EV for something like $120 a month…although inventory is severely limited so it’s impossible to actually get. On top of the state and federal rebates our local utility also offers $3500 off a Leaf…so there are all kinds of deals you can stack on top of each other that bring the price of EVs down quite a bit that isn’t immediately apparent. It’s a shame, really.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > 3point8isgreat 01/22/2020 at 11:28

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Yikes yeah that’s definitely a unique scenario, glad you had the foresight to actually test it out before going ahead and buying a car. 

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > Phyrxes once again has a wagon! 01/22/2020 at 11:37

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Just a heads up that technically manufacturers say you shouldn’t use an extension cord to charge an EV. What that actually means is don’t just use the cord you use to plug your night lamp in to – it will overheat and potentially cause a fire, if the charger doesn’t realize this early and cut power to itself. But plenty of people run extension cords made of 10 or 12 gauge wire just fine – myself included. “My” garage spot is taken up by my E46, so the Bolt lives in the driveway behind it – and I have a 12/3 extension cord (damn those things are pricey!) running from an outlet in the garage to give the charging cable the extra length it needs.

Sounds like something newish and cheap is the best option for you to give you maximum warranty on the battery pack. Something like a 500e or a Spark EV can be had with ~5+ years of warranty left for well under $10k. No experience with the 500e but people seem to love them, I really liked our Spark EV when we had it. Either should give you around 90 miles of range in warm weather and around 60 during the winter. And obviously the Volt has quite the cult following, with 1 st gen models going at around $10k as well – you get more car, but only around 35 miles of EV range…though you do have the ICE motor as backup (but no/very little warranty left at this point).

Eury - AFRICA TWIN!!!!!!! > LJ909 01/22/2020 at 11:48

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This is exactly why Tesla sells. Anyone who is looking for an EV that is even borderline practical as an ICE or hybrid replacement has no other choice. The killer move they made was the supercharging network and if you live near one and travel near them it makes the car nearly as useful as a normal ICE or Hybrid.

I own a 2016 Volt. Bought for 16k with 7k miles on it last summer. For that price it is an amazing car. I was shocked after buying it how rarely I was able to charge it when out and about, and when I can it is slooooow. Luckily it has the engine and I charge at home so it doesn’t really matter. However I’ve been spending a lot of time looking at charging infrastructure and when the engine kicks in. I could drive a Tesla for everything we’ve done in the Volt without range anxiety. None of the EVs on the market would work.

All the same, my GTI kills all of them at much lower cost, but the Volt is a Nice solution as well.